Can They Survive? : Predicting Criminal Recidivism among Parolees with Survival Analysis
Date
2010
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Haverford users only
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Abstract
In this paper I analyze the effects of individual characteristics on the probability of criminal recidivism among parolees using survival analysis. I use these probabilities to make predictions about whether or not individuals will commit crimes in the aftermath of their release. My predictions are more accurate than previous predictions of criminal recidivism, and a number of insights are gained into what characteristics affect recidivism and how those effects change with time.