The Effect of Elite Political Instability on the Prevalence of Malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa

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2009
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Open Access
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Abstract
The goal of this paper is to estimate the relationship between elite political instability (PI) and the prevalence of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa, using panel data from 20 African nations between the years 1980-2001. Basing the regression models on existing theories regarding the incidence and deaths attributed to malaria, I estimate the impact of various factors including government health expenditure, foreign aid, education, infrastructure, and PI on the incidence of malaria. The results of the OLS regression suggest that there is a negative relationship between the rate of malaria and government health expenditure and foreign aid, among other factors, and a positive but insignificant relationship between the rate of malaria and PI when other factors are controlled for. To identify the channels via which PI may be affecting the incidence of malaria, we test for the relationship between PI and various determinants found to be significant factors contributing to the incidence of malaria. We find a negative and significant relationship between government health expenditure and PI, and a strong positive relationship between PI and government defense expenditure, pointing to mechanisms via which PI indirectly exacerbates the incidence of the disease in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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