The Hot Hand in the NBA: A Closer Look
Date
2014
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Award
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eng
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Abstract
Past literature has suggested that the hot hand in basketball is largely a cognitive illusion. In general, the public has a misperception of randomness that leads to a flawed belief and understanding of the hot hand. The purpose of this paper is to take an in depth look at the hot hand. This study uses controls for time elapsed during a streak of made shots, score differential, as well as game situation. The results of this study support the notion that the hot hand is misunderstood. This study finds that in most cases, shot probability is lower after a make than after a miss. However, there is a small amount of evidence that may demonstrate a hot hand. These findings support the idea that actual hot hand is overestimated by many players and coaches. The hot hand may exist in some rare situations and more researched should be done. While a hot hand may exist, this study supports the conclusion that the belief in the hot hand is larger than it should be.