Individual Differences in the Planning Fallacy

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2009
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Haverford College. Department of Psychology
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Haverford users only
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Abstract
When faced with an impending task, people exhibit a pervasive tendency to underestimate the time needed to complete it (Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994). This phenomenon, termed the planning fallacy, has been previously associated with many traits, including a focus on the future (Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994), and an overly optimistic view of the future (Buehler & Griffin, 2003). The planning fallacy regularly leads to social and economic consequences. The goal of the present study was to examine the effects of two individual differences variables (temporal perspective and mood) on the planning fallacy. A writing task was used to prime for a temporal perspective (past, present, or future) and a mood (positive or negative). Based on past research, we hypothesized that future-positive subjects would be most susceptible to the planning fallacy, while past-negative individuals would underestimate by the lowest magnitude. Subjects predicted how long it would take them to complete a jigsaw puzzle, and then actually completed it. Across the experimental groups, subjects underestimated how long they would take to complete the puzzle by 36%, providing support for the planning fallacy. However, there were no significant effects of the primes. More research is needed, perhaps to strengthen the priming manipulation.
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