The Predictive Power of Financial Blogs
Date
2010
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Open Access
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Abstract
This paper examines the relationships between the investor sentiment of various reputable financial bloggers and market movements. Bullish, bearish and neutral blogger sentiment percentages are taken from the weekly “Blogger Sentiment Poll” of the financial blog Ticker Sense and compared with changes in market prices and market volume of the S&P 500 between the dates of July 10, 2006 and December 21, 2009. The bloggers are very inaccurate, with increases in bullishness raising the probability of market bearishness and increases in bearishness raising the probability of market bullishness over two-week, one-month and 3-month time periods. Disagreement in blogger sentiment is not associated with increased trading volume.